Standard&Poor’s gives a surprising estimation of Polish growth in 2016

On Friday the rating agency Standard&Poor’s put Polish GDP growth predictions at 3% for 2016 and investment growth for the same year at 1%. The government praised the result with Mateusz Morawiecki the deputy PM and Minister of Economy saying that it’s a “Good sign for Poland”. However, the data for 2016 doesn’t seem to indicate that this is possible, and it is suggested by many economists that the forecast is actually a mistake. If at the beginning of the year there were predictions of Polish economy growing at 3.8% in 2016, the data for the past months seem to suggest that the GDP growth may fall below 3%.
Jarosław_Kaczyński_Sejm_2016a
The leader of the ruling Law and Justice Party Jaroslaw Kaczynski identified the problem as “Entrepreneurs linked with the former government who hold out investments until more rent-seeking opportunities will be available”. Another possible reason is actually the government change last year that gave way to stronger anti-corruption drive. Since public investment is falling more than private investment, it seems that civil servants are less wanting to engage in investment activities.
Of course the estimation came as a surprise among recent data.

Jan

Jan is the main contributor. Likes writing, politics and some things that nobody else would ever find interesting.

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